Perspectives

With the Federal Election in Germany in September 2025, the beginning of this year’s parliamentary summer break in July also marks the last regular recess in the current legislative period. Against the background of current criticism of the Federal Government, this is a good opportunity to focus on the probability of a preliminary end of the current coalition government and the consequences that would arise for digital policymaking in Germany.

Federal Government under pressure

First, let´s have a closer look at the perception of the Federal Government´s performance. During the last months, members of the opposition parties and industry representatives have voiced heavy criticism and were even questioning whether the government will continue through its regular term until summer 2025. Such doubts are based on low approval ratings (32%) for the governing coalition made up of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens as well as internal conflicts on budgetary policy and political priorities. In comparison, center-right opposition parties, the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union, together reached an approval rate of 31% while far-right Alternative for Germany reached 17% at the beginning of July.

The Federal Government´s performance so far

Bitkom’s Digital Policy Monitor, which analyses 334 digital policy projects mentioned in the Federal Government’s Coalition Agreement and its Digital Strategy, shows a mixed picture of the Federal Government’s performance. The government has completed 29% (98 projects), while 60% (200 projects) are currently being discussed and 11% (26 projects) have not been initiated by 1 July 2024.

Among the completed projects are legislative initiatives from various sectors, such as the Act against Restraints of Competition and the Law to Accelerate Digitalization in the Health Sector. In addition, they agreed to institutionalize the Conference of Federal and State Digital Ministers. The first meeting took place in April 2024 and is considered a significant step in coordinating digital policy, giving it the necessary weight in the public discourse. Furthermore, the Data Strategy and Strategy for International Digital Policy set out the vision for the use of data in Germany, such as providing an increase in more useful data and aligning Germany’s international digital policy endeavors with existing digital policy strategies. The Federal Government is also in the process of founding the Data Institute to make better use of the potential of data in accordance with the Data Strategy. The founding process is to be finalized in the second half of 2024.

At the same time, other legislative initiatives are not advancing as expected. For example, the financing of the Online Access Act 2.0 that aims to digitalize public administration in Germany remains unclear, the Telecommunications Network Expansion Acceleration Act has been stuck in interdepartmental coordination since summer 2023 and the discussions within the Federal Government on legally compliant data retention are stalled.

The possibility of a preliminary end

It is worth noting that the preliminary end of a Federal Government’s legislative term rarely takes place in Germany. Only once, in 1982, did a Federal Chancellor have to end his parliamentary term against his will. Furthermore, there is a high bar for snap elections as only the Federal Chancellor can call a vote of confidence in the Federal Parliament and only the Federal President has the power to call a new election.

At the same time, low individual approval ratings of the three coalition partners make it unclear whether they would be included in the next government. With Germany having the so-called five percent hurdle to enter the Federal Parliament, it is even unsure for the FDP whether they would be able to re-enter the parliament in case of an election. Consequently, a preliminary end currently seems rather unlikely, and the coalition is expected to do its best to find compromises and continue its legislative term until next year. Lengthy discussions around the Federal Budgets for 2024 and 2025 have shown the governing parties’ perseverance and willingness to find compromises. In doing so, it will however be important not to water down the provisions of legislative initiatives.

Consequences of a preliminary end

Whether the three governing coalition parties will be able to pull themselves together and finish the current legislative period will remain to be seen. Given the perceived political shifts across European countries and the weak economic performance of Germany, a preliminary end of the Federal Government´s legislative term would not only add further pressure on the European political landscape, but also on national politics. In addition, it would further delay legislative initiatives necessary to ensure that the German industry stays up to speed with international competition, especially in the area of digital policy. This applies to the implementation of the Federal Government´s legislative projects and to the national implementation of EU legislation, such as the EU AI Act, Data Act and Data Governance Act.