Perspectives

In a week marked by significant political developments, two events have captured the world’s attention. On July 21, President Joe Biden announced that he would no longer seek reelection, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee. His decision marks the first voluntary resignation of a sitting president in recent history. Biden’s announcement came just days after Ohio Senator JD Vance officially accepted the GOP’s vice presidential nomination during the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. In this blog, we take a closer look at what the Trump/Vance ticket and the likely nomination of Harris mean for the tech industry. The policy differences between Trump and Harris are significant, with no clear winner emerging at the moment.

Key Takeaways

Although it is too soon to predict who will lead the elections, both Harris and Trump have distinct approaches to tech policy.

• If Harris wins, we can anticipate a continuation of the Biden administration’s policies, with a more balanced approach when it comes to antitrust and mergers to support growth and innovation in tech. Harris is expected to prioritize federal regulations in areas like AI governance and privacy, reflecting her longstanding advocacy for consumer privacy. Furthermore, she is likely to promote bilateral and multilateral cooperation on global AI guidance and safety standards, as evidenced by her participation in the UK Summit on AI safety.
• Conversely, Trump has emphasized his intent to repeal the Biden administration’s AI executive orders that he claims hinder innovation. He has vowed to prioritize freedom of speech on online platforms, a stance that aligns with recent legal industry battles over content moderation and First Amendment rights. Trump is also expected to take a more lenient approach to mergers and acquisitions.
• An interesting dynamic to watch will be how Vance, who has supported the current antitrust landscape, will adapt to Trump’s policies, given his previous opposition to large corporations. This divergence has made Silicon Valley skeptical about Trump’s pick.

Harris vs. Trump on Tech Policy: Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Harris will likely extend Biden’s executive order and urge Congress to pass legislation that would codify greater protections to promote consumer privacy, cybersecurity and human safety. On AI governance, Harris has been very outspoken in calling for government regulation of the technology, as opposed to Biden’s push for voluntary industry standards.

The Biden administration’s approach to AI policy has emphasized risk and harm mitigation. One of its first major governing documents was the Blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights, which, while not legally binding, was intended to help guide the development of safe and responsible AI. In July 2023, the Biden administration also developed a set of Voluntary AI Commitments on safety, security and trustworthiness with a number of leading developers. Finally, the centerpiece of the Biden administration’s AI policy was its October 2023 executive order, which invokes the Defense Production Act to mandate that developers of advanced AI systems share safety test results with the U.S. government, imposes know-your-customer requirements on cloud service providers and sets standards for federal agencies on AI safety, security and privacy.

Beyond domestic policy, the Biden administration engaged in AI governance conversations internationally, including cooperation around safe and transparent AI systems through the United States and European Union’s Trade and Technology Council, and cooperation on safety and evaluation standards between the U.S. AI Safety Institute and a global network of similar organizations. Further, the Biden administration restarted bilateral dialogues with China on key technical and policy issues. In her role as the vice president, Harris has led the U.S. delegation to the United Kingdom for the Global Summit on AI Safety and facilitated a dialogue with the CEOs of leading AI developers. Overall, when it comes to global AI policy, Harris is expected to continue the work of the Biden administration.

By contrast, Trump’s platform seeks to repeal the executive order. In general, Trump supports a lighter regulatory touch on AI and other emerging technologies. In his 2024 Republican Platform, Trump writes that he will “repeal Joe Biden’s dangerous Executive Order that hinders AI innovation and imposes radical leftwing ideas on the development of this technology. In its place, Republicans support AI development rooted in free speech and human flourishing.”

Though AI did not command comparable attention during the Trump administration, his policies toward AI governance generally focused on the promotion, development and adoption of AI systems. In four years, the administration issued two major executive orders. The first established the American AI Initiative, which set guiding principles, including training American workers, fostering public trust and protecting civil liberties and engaging internationally. The second was on “Promoting the Use of Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence in the Federal Government,” outlining principles for the government’s use of AI. At the time, some were critical of the Trump administration’s limited attention to risk mitigation.

On the other hand, the Trump camp remains firm in its opposition to China. Given Trump’s criticism of China, it’s hard to imagine an agreement between the United States and China on shared rules and principles for advanced AI systems beyond areas where there is a clear mutual interest.

Harris vs. Trump on Tech Policy: Antitrust Enforcement

Harris is expected to take a lighter stance on antitrust enforcement than Biden. According to the Financial Times, several M&A bankers and lawyers believe that if Harris wins the election, she could replace Lina Khan, the Chair of the Federal Trade Commission, with somebody more “deal-friendly.” Back in 2010, when running for California attorney general, Harris warned against “shortsighted” antitrust enforcement, arguing that “we can’t stand in the way of business growth and development.” Harris is a strong supporter of innovation and growth. In 2019, The New York Times asked Harris whether Big Tech companies should be broken up. Instead of giving a direct answer, she shifted the conversation to privacy regulation which is an area where she has a strong background. When it comes to privacy, Harris led her state’s privacy regulatory efforts as attorney general before California passed its data privacy law. She established the Privacy Enforcement and Protection Unit under the California Department of Justice and launched tools for Californians to report online privacy violations.

Meanwhile, Trump is expected to continue current tech antitrust enforcement cases; however, he will likely enable tech mergers and acquisitions since he is very supportive of tech industry growth. His entrepreneurial background makes him more sympathetic to the business community. Further, based on his first term in office, he is unlikely to appoint strong enforcers to the Department of Justice, Federal Trade Commission, or Federal Communications Commission.

Donald Trump Picks JD Vance as  Nominee: What Does It Mean for Tech?

Vance established himself as one of the fiercest defenders of the Trump agenda, especially when it comes to foreign policy, trade and immigration.

Having served less than two years in the Senate, Vance does not have an extensive voting record when it comes to issues important to the business community. However, he does receive high ratings from pro-business organizations like the National Federation of Independent Business and the National Retail Federation.

In contrast to Trump, Vance’s legislative efforts, like the bipartisan Stop Subsidizing Giant Mergers Act, highlight his push against corporate consolidation, a stance that could affect tech mergers and acquisitions. Vance is often described as an “economic populist” who wants to see the government do more to rebuild the nation’s industrial base. He is the co-author of bipartisan legislation to end tax-free mergers and taxpayer subsidies for acquisitions that consolidate corporate power. The Stop Subsidizing Giant Mergers Act (S. 4011) was introduced in March with Vance as the only co-sponsor.

During Vance’s 2022 senate campaign, he was an outspoken critic of large tech companies. According to Bloomberg, Vance railed against Big Tech, called Silicon Valley companies “parasitic,” and praised the Biden administration’s antitrust crackdown. He has also publicly praised Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan, a Democrat, for blocking a number of proposed business mergers over the last two years. His views on Big Tech come at odds with the light-touch regulation Trump is promoting during his campaign.

Vance also views Big Tech as a threat to freedom of expression, hindering job creation and propagating the values of the left. This rhetoric has alarmed Wall Street. In his speech at the Republican National Convention, Vance stated: “we’re done, ladies and gentlemen, catering to Wall Street. We’ll commit to the working man.”