Perspectives

On November 6, the Associated Press declared Donald Trump the winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Building on his first term and supported by a Republican-led Senate (and likely House of Representatives), Trump is poised to navigate the political landscape with greater acumen and fewer constraints. The President-elect’s second term will likely be characterized by constant negotiation—across borders, sectors, and industries.

What can we expect from Trump 2.0’s tech policy agenda? The focus will likely be on reducing regulations, fostering innovation, and ensuring U.S. dominance in key technology sectors. Over the next four years, we can anticipate strategic deregulation, a shift toward America-centric policies, and a bolstered tech sector aimed at competing globally.

Key Takeaways

• Trump’s administration is expected to roll back tech regulations to promote innovation and strengthen the U.S. tech industry’s competitive edge, particularly against global competitors like China.
• AI will be a priority in Trump’s tech policy agenda. While the Biden administration has favored international cooperation and oversight, Trump is likely to emphasize domestic innovation over global regulation.
• Trump’s administration is expected to support cryptocurrency innovation and resist central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Backed by a Republican-led Congress, this stance could position the U.S. as a global leader in digital currency.

Trump on Tech Policy

Upon inauguration on January 20, 2025, expect Trump to begin issuing a flurry of Executive Orders to undo several of the Biden administration’s signature tech initiatives.

• Artificial Intelligence: In his second term, Trump is expected to make a strong pivot from Biden’s AI regulatory framework. The Biden administration prioritized risk mitigation and reporting requirements for AI models, while establishing international partnerships. Trump’s approach, by contrast, will center deregulation, allowing AI firms to self-regulate under broad principles of “free speech and human flourishing.” His administration will likely dismantle Biden’s existing AI executive orders and prevent new federal oversight. While Trump aims for U.S. leadership in AI, he is unlikely to engage with international AI regulatory bodies, instead focusing on domestic innovation. This isolationist approach will impact national security, where Trump is expected to push AI development as a critical component of defense strategy and prioritize AI-enhanced military capabilities.
• Antitrust: Trump’s position on antitrust is likely to be a continuation of his earlier, more lenient stance. Antitrust actions initiated during his first term against Big Tech faltered, so Trump’s administration will now likely take a more hands-off approach, potentially encouraging mergers and acquisitions to grow the tech sector. Trump’s focus on economic growth aligns with deregulation, aiming to maintain the success of leading U.S. tech companies. Trump’s stance may clash with that of Vice President-elect, Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH), an economic populist who opposes corporate consolidation and favors more stringent oversight of Big Tech’s influence on free speech and job creation. Vance’s perspective could bring renewed challenges to Trump’s free-market approach, particularly if it gains traction within the Republican Party.
• Digital Currencies: Trump has become a vocal advocate of cryptocurrency, shifting from his earlier skepticism. He has embraced the industry’s libertarian ideals with the launch of his cryptocurrency company, World Liberty Financial. His administration is expected to champion deregulation in crypto, appointing leaders to agencies like the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) who favor minimal regulation to spur innovation. Trump’s administration will also likely resist central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which Republicans view as government overreach. With Republicans’ support, the House recently passed the CBDC Anti-Surveillance Act, reinforcing the party’s opposition to a U.S.-issued digital currency. Favoring cryptocurrency over CBDCs could position the U.S. as a global leader in digital currencies and encourage industry growth.

Republican-Led Congress on Tech Policy

As Republicans gain control of the Senate and hope to secure a House majority, the Democratic party will rush to pass tech legislation in the coming months, expecting that a Republican-led Congress will deprioritize strict regulation.

• Artificial Intelligence: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and other Democrats in Congress have pushed for AI regulation in recent years with little progress and will now attempt to pass several bills to address this priority before they lose their Senate majority. Legislation including the AI Research, Innovation, and Accountability Act will aim to advance AI research by creating testing and evaluation standards. After the Senate changes hands, the Republican majority will likely halt progress of legislation to set standards for AI. The party has historically supported minimal AI regulation, which could put an end to Schumer’s AI framework and the Bipartisan Senate AI Working Group’s efforts to require testing and validation of AI systems.
• Privacy and Safety: Disagreement between the parties over federal data privacy legislation will continue as leadership shifts in Congress. Republicans tend to oppose the stringent data privacy regulations favored by Democrats that could limit innovation or harm small businesses. Senate Republicans are also likely to support broad federal legislation to replace current state-by-state laws. Online safety for children is a priority for both parties. The Kids Online Safety Act received bipartisan support, but Republicans including House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) are hesitant to pass the bill due to concerns over censorship of conservative views across social media.
• Digital Currencies: The cryptocurrency industry is well-positioned for increased regulatory legislation with the defeat of longtime skeptic Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH). As Senate Banking Committee Chair, Brown has criticized and voted against legislation that would enable growth of digital currencies. Crypto lobbyists successfully installed Brown’s replacement, blockchain entrepreneur Bernie Moreno, who they hope will facilitate lighter regulations for the industry.

The Road Ahead

The next four years are likely to usher in sweeping changes in how the U.S. approaches technology and innovation. Trump’s administration, supported by a GOP-led Congress, is set to reduce regulatory burdens in tech, resist calls for centralized digital currencies, and prioritize AI and national security applications with an “America First” strategy. These policies may strengthen the U.S. tech industry’s global standing, though debates over privacy, ethical concerns, and international cooperation are likely to intensify.